[Date] December 03rd, 2018 (Monday)

[Time] 3:20pm-4:55pm

[Venue] 6A214, No. 6 Teaching Building

[Speaker] Otto Anker Nielsen, Professor in Transport Modelling and Head of the Transport Modelling Division at DTU Management Engineering

[Host] Dr. Hai Jiang

[Talk #52] A new bounded choice model for traffic assignment (route choice and equilibrium)

The  lecture will present a novel choice model, the Bounded Choice Model (BCM), along with network conditions for a corresponding Bounded Stochastic User Equilibrium. The model overcomes the limitations of traditional Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) models that (i) allow the representation of the perceptual and preferential differences that exist when drivers compare alternative routes through a transportation network, but (ii) are conventionally applied on the assumption that all available routes have a positive probability of being chosen, however unattractive.

This novel model integrates an exogenously-defined bound on the random utility of the set of paths that are used at equilibrium, within a Random Utility Theory (RUT) framework. The model predicts which routes are used and unused (the choice sets are equilibrated like in User Equilibrium, UE), while still ensuring that the distribution of flows on used routes is according to a discrete choice model (like conventional SUE). When the bound approaches infinity, the model approaches a traditional MNL SUE, while when the bound approaches zero, the model approaches a traditional UE. Importantly, conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of the Bounded SUE are shown, and a corresponding solution algorithm is proposed and numerical results are reported by applying this to the Sioux Falls network.

I then present a threshold model variant formulated prior to the Bounded SUE for achieving high computational efficiency. This is used in the current version of the Danish National Model and the European Transport Model, in both cases replacing prior SUE versions of the model. Results from these applications are also presented, particularly demonstrating the advantages in computational efficiency.

[Talk #53] Integrated Public Transport Optimisation and Planning

The lecture will provide an overview of the IPTOP project on Integrated Public Transport Optimisation and Planning. It will discuss the importance of looking integrated upon 1) passenger demand and route choice preferences, 2) optimization of timetables and services and 3) robustness in the railway operation. The focus is mainly on the strategic and tactic process of determining stopping patterns, frequency of services, timetable settings and vehicle scheduling. The lecture then discuss real-life large-scale data that makes this integration possible, define a framework that links passenger modelling, optimization and railway operation for strategic as well as tactic planning purposes. The remaining part of the lecture discuss mainly how to reveal and model passenger preferences, and particularly how this can reveal different preferences for different part of the journeys and types of services. Then I will provide some numbers on how much improvements can be made by including modelling of passenger behavior in the transport optimization within scheduling adjustments, adjustments of line-, frequency and stopping patterns, and optimization of operations.

 IPTOP is a joined project lead by DTU, and includes MIT, Technion, Erasmus University and Hong Kong Tech. DSB (the main Danish Rail Operator), Railnet Denmark (Rail Infrastructure Owner), The National Transport Authority, MOVIA (Copenhagen and East Denmark bus operator), and Rapidis (software firm) is also part of the project.

[Short Bio] Otto Anker Nielsen is Professor in Transport Modelling and Head of the Transport Modelling Division at DTU Management Engineering, and head of the inter-departmental centre covering Transport broadly across DTU.

He has 27 years of research experience and applied work experience within the field of transport modelling and transport behaviour research. Member of the Danish Academy of Technical Sciences, member of the Congestion Commission appointed by the Danish Minister for Transport 2013-1014, and recently appointed by the Minister of Transport to an expert group on transport of the future. He has been leading several large-scale transports modelling projects in Denmark and at EU level over the period from 1994 until now, and in total more than 55 projects in the field of transport. He has received and led 30 grants the last five years with a total budget of 9.5 million Euro. OAN is member of several scientific committees for international conferences, member of editorial boards and referee on international ISI journals. He has been/is supervisor for 27 PhD-students, 10 visiting PhD-students and more than 100 MSc thesis projects and about 70 BSc-thesis. 1777 citations in Google Scholar; h-index 23, i10-index 47. 54 documents in scopus, h-index 11, i10-index 13, 418 citations, 46 co-authors.

All interested are welcome!